Covid is not at all seasonal. Each wave so far is driven by a new variant, not by a season. There is so far no correspondence between season and infection rates.
Simply calculating increased mortality is one of the safest ways to measure the effect of a new virus. If we take 2016 to 2019, and we compare to 2020 to 2023 we would get a very…
Covid is not at all seasonal. Each wave so far is driven by a new variant, not by a season. There is so far no correspondence between season and infection rates.
Simply calculating increased mortality is one of the safest ways to measure the effect of a new virus. If we take 2016 to 2019, and we compare to 2020 to 2023 we would get a very reliable figure for the death rate over a comparable 4 years.
Lastly, the problem with Covid is no longer really the acute stage (vaccination and prior infection have helped). The problem is that each infection carries so much long term risk with it. 10% of infections lead to symptomatic Long Covid and some unknown percentage of infections lead to no symptomatic problems (vulnerability to other illness, strokes, heart attacks, cognitive problems, etc). Just how high this burden is remains unknown, but we know it will be big.
After only four years and a changing landscape (population is different with immunity and susceptible mortality) and a significantly mutating virus we don't know for sure except to say that it isn't highly seasonal like flu, no? The two highest waves of infection in the US have been in the winter, but there have been big waves in other seasons as well. Is it vitally important at this point? Our data are very poor in the US, excess mortality and wastewater monitoring are about all we have.
Same with long term effects. We know it's very bad, but it's still an open question how devastating it will be. Time will tell. Our data are even worse for this aspect of the disease.
What we do know is our times aren't that different from the days of John Snow and Ignaz Semmelweis. We as a species cannot mount a rational response to the clear and present danger of an infectious disease in a time frame when it would be most effective.
Covid is not at all seasonal. Each wave so far is driven by a new variant, not by a season. There is so far no correspondence between season and infection rates.
Simply calculating increased mortality is one of the safest ways to measure the effect of a new virus. If we take 2016 to 2019, and we compare to 2020 to 2023 we would get a very reliable figure for the death rate over a comparable 4 years.
Lastly, the problem with Covid is no longer really the acute stage (vaccination and prior infection have helped). The problem is that each infection carries so much long term risk with it. 10% of infections lead to symptomatic Long Covid and some unknown percentage of infections lead to no symptomatic problems (vulnerability to other illness, strokes, heart attacks, cognitive problems, etc). Just how high this burden is remains unknown, but we know it will be big.
After only four years and a changing landscape (population is different with immunity and susceptible mortality) and a significantly mutating virus we don't know for sure except to say that it isn't highly seasonal like flu, no? The two highest waves of infection in the US have been in the winter, but there have been big waves in other seasons as well. Is it vitally important at this point? Our data are very poor in the US, excess mortality and wastewater monitoring are about all we have.
Same with long term effects. We know it's very bad, but it's still an open question how devastating it will be. Time will tell. Our data are even worse for this aspect of the disease.
What we do know is our times aren't that different from the days of John Snow and Ignaz Semmelweis. We as a species cannot mount a rational response to the clear and present danger of an infectious disease in a time frame when it would be most effective.
So it goes.