Very interesting and partly convincing but the historical examples, sorry… The plague in the second century „caused“ the decline of the Roman Empire, and then Rome continued ruling the world for 300 more years? Most serious historians will just roll their eyes. And the Spanish flu „caused“ the rise of the Nazis but didn’t cause any comparable crises in the US or UK?
2 years of decline in life expectancy are a momentous trend but the decades of almost unbroken increase don’t count as a trend?
Despite what I think is overreach in your framing, I do agree that the big decline especially in the US is a very significant event. You state that early data points to a third year of decline, can you expand on those early data?
Thanks for your comments. The historians I linked to will probably think they are serious (and I can find more), and as I thought was clear but perhaps not the 1918 flu was a force multiplier for German society leading to the creation of the Nazis, not the sole cause. Again this was referenced. Excess death numbers for 2022 can be found here. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=~DEU
Very interesting and partly convincing but the historical examples, sorry… The plague in the second century „caused“ the decline of the Roman Empire, and then Rome continued ruling the world for 300 more years? Most serious historians will just roll their eyes. And the Spanish flu „caused“ the rise of the Nazis but didn’t cause any comparable crises in the US or UK?
2 years of decline in life expectancy are a momentous trend but the decades of almost unbroken increase don’t count as a trend?
Despite what I think is overreach in your framing, I do agree that the big decline especially in the US is a very significant event. You state that early data points to a third year of decline, can you expand on those early data?
Thanks for your comments. The historians I linked to will probably think they are serious (and I can find more), and as I thought was clear but perhaps not the 1918 flu was a force multiplier for German society leading to the creation of the Nazis, not the sole cause. Again this was referenced. Excess death numbers for 2022 can be found here. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=~DEU
Very interesting (and concerning). Thanks for that 👍🏻
Thanks for reading!