"Because people, especially Americans, are scared."
You bet and to make matters worse it's a sort of inchoate fear as there are so few resources to find out quickly and easily what is actually happening.
I'm here and boy can I feel it in the air. People sense the shit is about to hit the fan. No question.
And so I am enjoying every minute with the grandkids this week on their spring break - playing, laughing, creating, and making fun memories. Keeping them innocent and loved for as long as possible has been my mission.
Echoing Mr. Bear's grim but well-intentioned message, only days ago, I posted the following to my own cultivated mailing list:
Dear Select Writers and Activist, all over the land, from every artificial and skillfully designed nook and cranny of what's called "the political spectrum":
We surely all remember the words: "Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pens... Keep your eyes wide, the chance won't come again... Don't speak too soon, for the wheel's still in spin... And there's no tellin' who that it's namin'..."
... Been gone for a good long while, but I'm still here... Did some 'hard traveling' to strange lands... On the borders of familiar dimensions... And even a bit beyond... Had a visit from Death, who taught me a great deal, in a short time, over a casual 'cup of coffee'... I looked into his steely cold but strangely welcoming smile... But here I still am, as the apocalypse seems to come ever closer upon us, ever more rapidly...
"The fire burns fast once the timbers begin to fall"... Decourcy Ward, from the Shakespearian-caliber drama, 'City on a Hill'...
Copied below is a commentary I posted to an article by Kit Klarenberg, (one of our finest 'true journalists' still working), entitled 'Strait of Hormuz Closure Bring Empire to the Brink'... But this otherwise very good article contains a crucial error, as I point out in my comments as copied below, (which were addressed in reply to a comment from my fellow-citizen, named Jeremiah)...
I hope this finds all well...
Simius Cognitius
***
The Fire Burns Fast Once the Timbers Begin to Fall
Aye… Good Citizen Jeremiah… Well spoken, sir… (His comments appear above)…But lest we let our anticipation of the Empire’s collapse cloud our vision with misplaced ‘joy’, we should think about what will likely most immediately follow…
The collapse of the evil, Jewish-dominated US-Israel Empire will very likely most immediately bring utter Chaos down upon us, here in the foul, stench-distended belly of this Evil Beast, where we and our beloved families must struggle to survive…
"Chaos"… Do we even know what that term means, in classical social/philosophical terms?
Chaos… as in riots, the likes of which we’ve never seen… Chaos, as in the orange glow of fires over the rooftops, growing ominously closer every night… Chaos, as in people guarding their dead-bolted and barricaded front doors with firearms, to protect the stocks of food and other life-giving supplies they hold in their pantries, against the mindless passions of rage-filled mobs driven by the maddening cries of their own babies’ hunger…
“The fire burns fast once the timbers begin to fall”… (Decourcy Ward, in the Shakespearian-caliber drama, ‘City on a Hill‘)…
When our Ponzi-scheme economy, with its overhang of over $35 TRILLION in debt, (now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days, or $3.65 trillion per year, which will thus double the debt in 10 years), comes crashing down, our money will become worthless… Every bank in the nation will crumble into rubble… Grocery shelves will soon be stripped bare… Why stock, when nobody can buy?… Why stock, when people, in their helpless desperation, simply take whatever is left, whatever they need?… Gasoline won’t merely be more expensive, it won’t be available at ALL…
As the orange glow in the night sky grows ever closer over the rooftops, people won’t just tolerate Martial Law, they will DEMAND it! Soldiers will have orders to shoot looters on sight… The military will distribute food, medicines, and other essential supplies, as best they can… but the supply side will never come close to meeting the demand…
When the Jewish-dominated US-Israel Empire defaults on its explosively billowing debt, what do we think is going to happen?… When Chaos falls upon us, black and brown people won’t suffer worse… All will suffer equally… but black and brown people, and ALL poor people, will suffer first…
The Empire has been drawn into a trap by the ad hoc Alliance of Rebel Nations… The Empire is now forced to fight on a second front, and it is LOSING, and losing BADLY, on BOTH fronts… As fiercely deadly battles rage on both fronts, in the Hallowed Halls of Finance, where the Empire's power center's soft underbelly is fully exposed, the ad hoc Rebel Alliance has been fighting a sophisticated war against the US Dollar, and now has the Empire's fate in its grasp. They “have the Empire by the short hairs”, (as they say), and they’re not likely to let go…
Mr. Klarenberg’s report here contains a crucial error, however, when he writes (paraphrasing) that “all maritime traffic through Hormuz has been brought to a standstill”. This is emphatically NOT correct… Iran, on behalf of the Rebel Alliance, has effectively created a ‘toll gate’ through Hormuz… It only allows shipping to pass through that will ‘pay the toll’… The announced terms of 'the toll’ are that all oil, and other essential goods, passing through the Strait must be evaluated (priced) in the Chinese Yuan, and NOT in the US dollar…
This is the death knell for what is called the ‘petro-dollar’, and with its death will come the total collapse of the US Dollar as the world’s ‘reserve currency’… The Jewish-dominated US-Israel Empire will then no longer be able to sell its treasury bonds… It will no longer be able to finance its exploding debt… It will be forced into default... Our money will become worthless..
“In the winter of ’65… We was hungry… just barely alive… I don’t mind chopping wood… and I don’t care if the money’s no good… You take what you need and leave the rest… But they should never have taken the very best…” Virgil Caine…
We need to start thinking in different terms, folks… The Woke Cult ‘left’ needs to free itself from its slavish devotion to its idiotic ideology, which fills the hearts of its followers with hatred for their own fellow citizens….The time has come for this kind of deadly confusion to be laid aside… The time is fast approaching when we ALL are going to need each other’s help to stay alive…
“The fire burns fast once the timbers begin to fall”… Look around, people… The timbers over our heads are already aflame and burning hot……
Storm clouds are gathering around global financial markets as the US war on Iran enters its fifth week and oil prices continue to rise along with a range of oil- and gas-dependent commodities such as fertilisers. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/03/31/pwll-m31.html
The working class is the only social force capable of stopping this war. Eight million people took to the streets, but that opposition will be strangled if it remains under the control of the Democratic Party. The fight against war requires an independent movement of the working class, organized in rank-and-file committees in every workplace and linked across industries and borders, armed with a socialist program against the capitalist system that produces war, dictatorship and social inequality. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/03/31/yjdz-m31.html
Europe could have confronted Israel and US over the Gaza genocide...."
My dude....europe? The biggest wimps on the planet, the aging effeminate metrosexual enunchs that make Liberace look like Rambo (if Rambo were real) by comparison?
Europe is simply hoping that American can be wheedled into going to war against Russia for them. Europeans may not be soldiers, but they are great at fruity pageantry, at whispering campaigns, at the arts of the courtier, conniving and at bending the ears of senile monarchs.
I'm not surprised to witness this situation, I am only surprised at how fast the climax was orchestrated. What does perplex me is the obliviousness of individuals in leadership roles - de facto NOT leading - who seem not to realize that they will be held to account for not doing more to pull any and every brake lever available to them to mitigate or, at the very least, delay what is now certain to develop.
It frustrates me stocking up on tins and such when my Boomer parents (who have so much more money than me - comfortable retirements) are so darn complacent about the idea that there will be food shortages here in the UK :( erg.
I get the feeling that the 'energy crisis' is a manufactured one:
"Global demand for crude oil rose only 5% between 2019 and 2025, and the world was well supplied at relatively low prices. With China rapidly accelerating the move of both its personal and commercial vehicle fleets from oil to electricity, while also transforming its electricity generation toward greater and greater levels of wind and solar. This crisis will tend to drive that transition, and the transition in other nations, even faster. The crisis itself has removed about a net 9 mbpd of oil out of 105 mbpd, as long as the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea still operates; 8.6%. About 20% of global LNG production is locked in the Gulf, with some operations experiencing significant long-term damage. BUT only 17% of global natural gas supply was delivered as LNG in 2024, so only 3.4% of global natural gas supplies are affected by the US war of aggression. There is also a large increase in US LNG exports planned for the next few years, which will tend to counter-balance any long-term damage to Gulf production."
The US war of aggression upon Iran has, and will, produce painful consequences within the oil and gas supply chain but it is not a presager of any enforced power down. It will also intensify the move away from fossil fuels, most especially in transportation. With China easily the biggest economic winner from this acceleration, as it dominates the “green” industries. While Europe may well be the most painful loser, due to its US vassal leaders and their self-harming incompetence.
I basically agree with it.
But I take issues with some of his framing, particularly the idea that a 5% increase in crude demand in a 6 year period which included the largest demand destruction event in modern history is minimal or that an 8% decrease in fertiliser availability is a pittance.
And in the US, yes, price rises are as much about profit taking and skimming as anything else.
I guess so. But it also strikes me as a bit of a straw man to say it ‘doesn't presage a power down.’ No one is saying that. I'm also not sure about his LNG calculations. Need to look into that more
Hmm. I kindof got pulled into doom porn with Peak Oil talk about 20 years back. The thinking comes from "if nothing changes but X barrels of oil leave the system, we're screwed". Although this is serious, the complacency comes from people being able to tolerate worsening conditions so far. That said, the feedback loop can quicken if life suddenly starts getting difficult for people in the street. That secondary effect is what really causes changes to happen. I think people talking about mass starvation have fixed conditions assumed.
Thank you, Nate, for doing so much research so that we can better understand the ramifications of what the war lords are doing.
The whole notion of "humanity has survived worse" is so weak.It is a ruse to deny and distract from the horrors that are happening now.
Humanity has never before been able to cause this much far-reaching damage.
Heaven help us.
"Because people, especially Americans, are scared."
You bet and to make matters worse it's a sort of inchoate fear as there are so few resources to find out quickly and easily what is actually happening.
I'm here and boy can I feel it in the air. People sense the shit is about to hit the fan. No question.
Yasha Levine. For all his left posturing, he's a crypto Zio. I wouldn't listen to a word he says.
And so I am enjoying every minute with the grandkids this week on their spring break - playing, laughing, creating, and making fun memories. Keeping them innocent and loved for as long as possible has been my mission.
Always look forward to reading your writing.
Echoing Mr. Bear's grim but well-intentioned message, only days ago, I posted the following to my own cultivated mailing list:
Dear Select Writers and Activist, all over the land, from every artificial and skillfully designed nook and cranny of what's called "the political spectrum":
We surely all remember the words: "Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pens... Keep your eyes wide, the chance won't come again... Don't speak too soon, for the wheel's still in spin... And there's no tellin' who that it's namin'..."
... Been gone for a good long while, but I'm still here... Did some 'hard traveling' to strange lands... On the borders of familiar dimensions... And even a bit beyond... Had a visit from Death, who taught me a great deal, in a short time, over a casual 'cup of coffee'... I looked into his steely cold but strangely welcoming smile... But here I still am, as the apocalypse seems to come ever closer upon us, ever more rapidly...
"The fire burns fast once the timbers begin to fall"... Decourcy Ward, from the Shakespearian-caliber drama, 'City on a Hill'...
Copied below is a commentary I posted to an article by Kit Klarenberg, (one of our finest 'true journalists' still working), entitled 'Strait of Hormuz Closure Bring Empire to the Brink'... But this otherwise very good article contains a crucial error, as I point out in my comments as copied below, (which were addressed in reply to a comment from my fellow-citizen, named Jeremiah)...
I hope this finds all well...
Simius Cognitius
***
The Fire Burns Fast Once the Timbers Begin to Fall
Aye… Good Citizen Jeremiah… Well spoken, sir… (His comments appear above)…But lest we let our anticipation of the Empire’s collapse cloud our vision with misplaced ‘joy’, we should think about what will likely most immediately follow…
The collapse of the evil, Jewish-dominated US-Israel Empire will very likely most immediately bring utter Chaos down upon us, here in the foul, stench-distended belly of this Evil Beast, where we and our beloved families must struggle to survive…
"Chaos"… Do we even know what that term means, in classical social/philosophical terms?
Chaos… as in riots, the likes of which we’ve never seen… Chaos, as in the orange glow of fires over the rooftops, growing ominously closer every night… Chaos, as in people guarding their dead-bolted and barricaded front doors with firearms, to protect the stocks of food and other life-giving supplies they hold in their pantries, against the mindless passions of rage-filled mobs driven by the maddening cries of their own babies’ hunger…
“The fire burns fast once the timbers begin to fall”… (Decourcy Ward, in the Shakespearian-caliber drama, ‘City on a Hill‘)…
When our Ponzi-scheme economy, with its overhang of over $35 TRILLION in debt, (now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days, or $3.65 trillion per year, which will thus double the debt in 10 years), comes crashing down, our money will become worthless… Every bank in the nation will crumble into rubble… Grocery shelves will soon be stripped bare… Why stock, when nobody can buy?… Why stock, when people, in their helpless desperation, simply take whatever is left, whatever they need?… Gasoline won’t merely be more expensive, it won’t be available at ALL…
As the orange glow in the night sky grows ever closer over the rooftops, people won’t just tolerate Martial Law, they will DEMAND it! Soldiers will have orders to shoot looters on sight… The military will distribute food, medicines, and other essential supplies, as best they can… but the supply side will never come close to meeting the demand…
When the Jewish-dominated US-Israel Empire defaults on its explosively billowing debt, what do we think is going to happen?… When Chaos falls upon us, black and brown people won’t suffer worse… All will suffer equally… but black and brown people, and ALL poor people, will suffer first…
The Empire has been drawn into a trap by the ad hoc Alliance of Rebel Nations… The Empire is now forced to fight on a second front, and it is LOSING, and losing BADLY, on BOTH fronts… As fiercely deadly battles rage on both fronts, in the Hallowed Halls of Finance, where the Empire's power center's soft underbelly is fully exposed, the ad hoc Rebel Alliance has been fighting a sophisticated war against the US Dollar, and now has the Empire's fate in its grasp. They “have the Empire by the short hairs”, (as they say), and they’re not likely to let go…
Mr. Klarenberg’s report here contains a crucial error, however, when he writes (paraphrasing) that “all maritime traffic through Hormuz has been brought to a standstill”. This is emphatically NOT correct… Iran, on behalf of the Rebel Alliance, has effectively created a ‘toll gate’ through Hormuz… It only allows shipping to pass through that will ‘pay the toll’… The announced terms of 'the toll’ are that all oil, and other essential goods, passing through the Strait must be evaluated (priced) in the Chinese Yuan, and NOT in the US dollar…
This is the death knell for what is called the ‘petro-dollar’, and with its death will come the total collapse of the US Dollar as the world’s ‘reserve currency’… The Jewish-dominated US-Israel Empire will then no longer be able to sell its treasury bonds… It will no longer be able to finance its exploding debt… It will be forced into default... Our money will become worthless..
“In the winter of ’65… We was hungry… just barely alive… I don’t mind chopping wood… and I don’t care if the money’s no good… You take what you need and leave the rest… But they should never have taken the very best…” Virgil Caine…
We need to start thinking in different terms, folks… The Woke Cult ‘left’ needs to free itself from its slavish devotion to its idiotic ideology, which fills the hearts of its followers with hatred for their own fellow citizens….The time has come for this kind of deadly confusion to be laid aside… The time is fast approaching when we ALL are going to need each other’s help to stay alive…
“The fire burns fast once the timbers begin to fall”… Look around, people… The timbers over our heads are already aflame and burning hot……
🤡
Storm clouds are gathering around global financial markets as the US war on Iran enters its fifth week and oil prices continue to rise along with a range of oil- and gas-dependent commodities such as fertilisers. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/03/31/pwll-m31.html
The working class is the only social force capable of stopping this war. Eight million people took to the streets, but that opposition will be strangled if it remains under the control of the Democratic Party. The fight against war requires an independent movement of the working class, organized in rank-and-file committees in every workplace and linked across industries and borders, armed with a socialist program against the capitalist system that produces war, dictatorship and social inequality. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/03/31/yjdz-m31.html
"But this all could have been avoided.
Europe could have confronted Israel and US over the Gaza genocide...."
My dude....europe? The biggest wimps on the planet, the aging effeminate metrosexual enunchs that make Liberace look like Rambo (if Rambo were real) by comparison?
Europe is simply hoping that American can be wheedled into going to war against Russia for them. Europeans may not be soldiers, but they are great at fruity pageantry, at whispering campaigns, at the arts of the courtier, conniving and at bending the ears of senile monarchs.
I'm not surprised to witness this situation, I am only surprised at how fast the climax was orchestrated. What does perplex me is the obliviousness of individuals in leadership roles - de facto NOT leading - who seem not to realize that they will be held to account for not doing more to pull any and every brake lever available to them to mitigate or, at the very least, delay what is now certain to develop.
Normalcy bias is a big part of it. Denial.
It frustrates me stocking up on tins and such when my Boomer parents (who have so much more money than me - comfortable retirements) are so darn complacent about the idea that there will be food shortages here in the UK :( erg.
hugs for you.
no growth as usual
accountability indeed has its day.
I get the feeling that the 'energy crisis' is a manufactured one:
"Global demand for crude oil rose only 5% between 2019 and 2025, and the world was well supplied at relatively low prices. With China rapidly accelerating the move of both its personal and commercial vehicle fleets from oil to electricity, while also transforming its electricity generation toward greater and greater levels of wind and solar. This crisis will tend to drive that transition, and the transition in other nations, even faster. The crisis itself has removed about a net 9 mbpd of oil out of 105 mbpd, as long as the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea still operates; 8.6%. About 20% of global LNG production is locked in the Gulf, with some operations experiencing significant long-term damage. BUT only 17% of global natural gas supply was delivered as LNG in 2024, so only 3.4% of global natural gas supplies are affected by the US war of aggression. There is also a large increase in US LNG exports planned for the next few years, which will tend to counter-balance any long-term damage to Gulf production."
Scare Pieces About Global Fossil Fuels
https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/scare-pieces-about-global-fossil
The US is self-sufficient in oil and in fact is a net exporter yet gas is selling at $4 a gallon and higher in some states. So, manufactured crisis?
This is his conclusion:
The US war of aggression upon Iran has, and will, produce painful consequences within the oil and gas supply chain but it is not a presager of any enforced power down. It will also intensify the move away from fossil fuels, most especially in transportation. With China easily the biggest economic winner from this acceleration, as it dominates the “green” industries. While Europe may well be the most painful loser, due to its US vassal leaders and their self-harming incompetence.
I basically agree with it.
But I take issues with some of his framing, particularly the idea that a 5% increase in crude demand in a 6 year period which included the largest demand destruction event in modern history is minimal or that an 8% decrease in fertiliser availability is a pittance.
And in the US, yes, price rises are as much about profit taking and skimming as anything else.
Well this is broadly Boyd's view, isn't it?
I guess so. But it also strikes me as a bit of a straw man to say it ‘doesn't presage a power down.’ No one is saying that. I'm also not sure about his LNG calculations. Need to look into that more
Now would be a good time to be sure that you're sure that your true treasure is in heaven.
Hmm. I kindof got pulled into doom porn with Peak Oil talk about 20 years back. The thinking comes from "if nothing changes but X barrels of oil leave the system, we're screwed". Although this is serious, the complacency comes from people being able to tolerate worsening conditions so far. That said, the feedback loop can quicken if life suddenly starts getting difficult for people in the street. That secondary effect is what really causes changes to happen. I think people talking about mass starvation have fixed conditions assumed.